Vox: The cracks in the GOP’s gerrymandering firewall

Nearly a decade ago, Republicans swept into office in state legislatures and in the House of Representatives, and went about remaking American politics — despite a Democrat in the White House. Almost immediately after the GOP captured several pivotal state governments in 2010, they began a frenzy of gerrymandering that seemed to guarantee Republican majorities for the rest of the decade.

But as we approach the 2020 elections, it appears that cracks are finally showing in the GOP’s gerrymandering wall.

Last week, for example, a panel of three North Carolina judges struck down state legislative maps that, in the words of that court, were “carefully crafted” to ensure that “in all but the most unusual election scenarios, the Republican party will control a majority of both chambers of the General Assembly.”

Under the gerrymandered maps, Republican state Senate candidates “won a minority— 49.5%—of the two-party statewide vote, but still won 29 of 50 seats (58%).” GOP state House candidates “won a minority—48.8%— of the two-party statewide vote, but still won 65 of 120 seats (54%).”

The panel was, in its own words, made up of judges with “differing ideological and political outlooks.” Yet all three agreed that the maps must fall. The state legislature has until September 18 to “enact Remedial Maps for the House and Senate legislative districts for the 2020 election … in conformity with this Order.” Republicans do not plan to appeal the decision in the case, Common Cause v. Lewis, so the 2020 election will likely be the first in nearly a decade where Democrats have a fighting chance to take control of the state legislature in North Carolina.

Common Cause is just the latest in a series of court decisions and ballot initiatives that either undercut Republican gerrymanders or that seek to prevent either party from drawing similarly gerrymandered maps in the future. Court decisions in Florida, Pennsylvania, and Virginia have weakened Republican gerrymanders, while ballot initiatives in Michigan and Ohio seek to prevent either party from gerrymandering those states ever again.