News & Observer: Rural NC is shrinking. It will affect political redistricting after the 2020 election

12.10.2019 / By Will Doran
News & Observer: Rural NC is shrinking. It will affect political redistricting after the 2020 election

The political maps of the past decade have favored rural voters, said Common Cause North Carolina Executive Director Bob Phillips. Rural voters tend to support Republicans, and the maps were drawn to cement Republicans’ power. Plus, he said, many of North Carolina’s most powerful lawmakers are from rural areas themselves. Phillips, who is an advocate for redistricting reform, said he is still trying to convince Republican leaders like them to pass reforms in the next few months, before the 2020 elections. In part, he said, he pitches it as an insurance policy for Republicans in case Democrats do win in 2020. Without reforms to take politics out of the process, Phillips said, Democrats could draw new maps that benefit urban voters as much as the current maps benefit rural voters. “I sometimes talk to those lawmakers and say, ‘The pendulum swings,’” Phillips said. “‘You all know that. And you do not want to ... be left out, potentially, if the pendulum were to swing back.’”

Gerrymandering has been one of the biggest political stories of the year in North Carolina as lawsuits forced the Republican-led legislature to draw new maps for the districts used to elect members of Congress and the N.C. General Assembly.

The new maps, analysts predict, will be more Democratic-leaning but could still favor Republicans. They will only be used once, in the 2020 elections. Whichever party takes control of the state legislature in those elections will be in charge of drawing new maps for the next decade.

The state will redraw its maps again in 2021, using updated population data from the 2020 Census. There’s no question that North Carolina’s rural areas will lose political influence when that happens. But which political party is in charge of that redistricting process could have a lot to do with how pronounced the rural losses are. …

The political maps of the past decade have favored rural voters, said Common Cause North Carolina Executive Director Bob Phillips. Rural voters tend to support Republicans, and the maps were drawn to cement Republicans’ power. Plus, he said, many of North Carolina’s most powerful lawmakers are from rural areas themselves. …

Phillips, who is an advocate for redistricting reform, said he is still trying to convince Republican leaders like them to pass reforms in the next few months, before the 2020 elections. In part, he said, he pitches it as an insurance policy for Republicans in case Democrats do win in 2020.

Democrats may draw new maps

Without reforms to take politics out of the process, Phillips said, Democrats could draw new maps that benefit urban voters as much as the current maps benefit rural voters.

“I sometimes talk to those lawmakers and say, ‘The pendulum swings,’” Phillips said. “‘You all know that. And you do not want to … be left out, potentially, if the pendulum were to swing back.’”

See More: Gerrymandering/RedistrictingGerrymandering & Representation