{"id":679,"date":"2023-11-11T08:27:42","date_gmt":"2023-11-11T13:27:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.commoncause.org\/north-carolina\/articles\/dra-analysis-2024-north-carolina-voting-districts\/"},"modified":"2024-08-27T11:23:53","modified_gmt":"2024-08-27T15:23:53","slug":"dra-analysis-2024-north-carolina-voting-districts","status":"publish","type":"article","link":"https:\/\/www.commoncause.org\/north-carolina\/articles\/dra-analysis-2024-north-carolina-voting-districts\/","title":{"rendered":"DRA Analysis: 2024 North Carolina voting districts"},"template":"","class_list":["post-679","article","type-article","status-publish","hentry","article_type-blog-post"],"acf":{"details":{"summary":"","featured_image":"","article_type":162,"authors":"","related_issues":[62,417],"related_work":false,"location":null},"sidebar":{"helper_enable_sidebar":false,"helper_media_contact":{"heading":"Media Contact","manually_enter_person":false,"person":"","name":"","role":"","phone":"","email":""},"helper_links_downloads":{"heading":"Links & Downloads","links":null}},"page_layout":[{"acf_fc_layout":"layout_wysiwyg","_acfe_flexible_toggle":"","component_wysiwyg":{"content":"Common Cause NC has compiled information from Dave\u2019s Redistricting App (DRA) about the new congressional and legislative district maps passed by the Republican-controlled North Carolina legislature for the 2024 elections. NOTE: The analysis here reflects what is generated by Dave\u2019s Redistricting App and does not constitute an opinion or endorsement by Common Cause.<\/strong>\r\n\r\nDave\u2019s Redistricting App<\/i><\/a> is a volunteer-run free online tool to create, view, and analyze legislative maps. DRA uses data about election outcomes from the past several elections to make predictions about how a district will lean.<\/i>\r\n

JUMP TO: Congressional Map<\/a>\u00a0 |\u00a0 NC Senate Map<\/a>\u00a0 |\u00a0 NC House Map<\/a><\/strong><\/h3>\r\n<\/a>\r\n\r\n
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2024 NC Congressional Map (CST-4)<\/b><\/h2>\r\nClick here to view the full DRA analysis and interactive map<\/a>.\r\n\r\nHere\u2019s what Dave\u2019s Redistricting analysis shows us about the 2024 NC Congressional Map:\r\n\r\nPolitical Demographics<\/b>\r\n\r\nBelow is a view of the congressional plan based on composite 2016-2022 election data <\/a>which combines the results of several elections. The darker the shade of red or blue the safer the seat.\u00a0 The lighter the shade, the less safe the seat is.\r\n\r\n\"\"\r\n\r\n\"\"\r\n\r\nBelow is an illustration of the political lean for each congressional district and how the districts are projected to change under the new plan.\r\n\r\n\"\"\r\n\r\n \r\n\r\nThree of the districts, district 1, district 11, and district 7 are estimated to favor Republicans or Democrats by no more than 10 percentage points. Another way to describe these districts is having a political lean in-between R+10 and D+10. This means these districts do not favor one political party by more than 10 percentage points and may be at least somewhat competitive. District 11 and district 7 are at the edge of the competitive range with a lean of R+10 while district 1 is projected to be quite competitive with a lean of D+3. According to the DRA analysis, the most likely outcome of this map would be a 10-4 split with 10 Republicans and 4 Democrats.\r\n\r\nDistrict 1, by far, is expected to be the most competitive district in this plan. With the DRA projected margin in the district being D+3, it is possible for Republicans to win the district and obtain an 11-3 majority in North Carolina\u2019s congressional delegation.\r\n\r\nCommunities Split<\/b>\r\n\r\nDespite numerous public comments asking for the Triad and Sandhills to be kept together within a congressional district, the North Carolina General Assembly\u2019s enacted congressional map splits both regions into multiple districts. As show below:\r\n

Triad in 2024 Congressional Map:<\/b><\/p>\r\n\"\"\r\n

Sandhills in 2024 Congressional Map:<\/b><\/p>\r\n\"\"\r\n\r\n2022 Map vs. 2024 Map<\/b>\r\n\r\nMap makers also chose to split the three largest counties in the state twice. Wake and Mecklenburg counties have to be split once because they contain a population larger than one congressional district. Guilford County does not have to be split.\r\n\r\nThere was also a change in the northeast congressional district. That district which includes the historic Black belt of Northeastern North Carolina now excludes Pitt County and extends further east to include Currituck and Camden counties.\r\n\r\n \r\n\r\n\"\"\r\n\r\nFor a more in-depth comparison between the 2022 maps and the 2024 maps, Click here to use the Redistricting and You tool<\/a>. You can compare political and racial data. It will also allow you to type in your address to see how your districts have changed.\r\n\r\nRacial Demographics<\/b>\r\n\r\nThis map shows how North Carolina\u2019s Black population is spread across the districts:\r\n\r\n\"\"\r\n\r\nDistricts 1 (Northeast NC) and 12 (Charlotte) have a Black voting age population above 37% (the threshold used by DRA to illustrate significant minority population in a district).\r\n\r\nBlack Voting Age Population of Northeast NC Congressional District<\/u>\r\n\r\n\"\"\r\n\r\nThis map changes the configuration of district 1, the district which has traditionally represented the northeastern part of the state.\r\n\r\nDRA Analytics Summary:<\/b>\r\n\r\n\"\"\r\n\r\nDRA examines how the map addresses 5 different criteria: Proportionality<\/a>, Competitiveness<\/a>, Minority Representation<\/a>, Compactness<\/a>, and Splitting<\/a>. Its scores for each category are listed below on a 0-100 scale.\u00a0 A higher number indicates a better score. Note that DRA\u2019s Minority Representation analysis does not ensure Voting Rights Act (VRA) compliance. DRA also notes that some factors like communities of interest can be hard to quantify.\r\n\r\n\"\"\r\n\r\n \r\n\r\n*DRA\u2019s analysis includes a disclaimer stating that its analysis does not ensure Voting Rights Act compliance.\r\n\r\nProportionality is one measure of how fair a map is. In a proportional map, if 50% of North Carolinians voted for Republicans to represent them in Congress and 50% voted for Democrats, the map\u2019s number of leaning Republican or Democratic seats should be about even. This would likely result in a 7-7 or 8-6 split among North Carolina\u2019s Congressional delegation. The enacted 2024 map received a 0 out of 100 for proportionality, meaning it is incredibly disproportionate and will greatly favor Republicans. Therefore with the implementation of this map, a majority of North Carolinians could vote for Democrats to represent them in the US Congress, however, because of how the districts are drawn, a majority of Republicans could still get elected.\r\n\r\nDRA Analytics Notes\r\n